The NAS100 is flashing a compelling bullish opportunity as macroeconomic conditions, central bank policy shifts, and explosive AI momentum align. With inflation easing, institutional flows returning, and price action signalling continuation, the US Tech 100 index is primed for a breakout toward new highs. Traders and investors alike are now focusing on a potential drive toward the psychologically and technically significant 21,000 level. Here’s a complete breakdown of what’s driving the move—and how to trade it.

Fundamental Analysis

Recent macro data confirms that the US economy is entering a period of disinflation and stabilisation, ideal for growth equities. Although quarterly GDP growth turned negative at -0.3 percent, the annual growth figure of 2.0 percent reflects underlying economic resilience. This deceleration has become a catalyst for a policy pivot: the Federal Reserve, after months of hawkish restraint, is now expected to begin cutting rates in the second half of 2025.

The inflation rate fell to 2.4 percent in April, creating headroom for monetary easing without immediate risk of overheating. Markets are now pricing in one to two rate cuts before year-end, which would boost valuations for tech companies reliant on future cash flow projections.

The labour market supports this narrative. Unemployment remains steady at 4.2 percent, wage growth is slowing, and job creation has eased into a sustainable pace. This reduces the risk of inflation resurgence while keeping consumer demand stable—an optimal environment for Nasdaq’s top holdings.

Tech sector fundamentals are also firing on all cylinders. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta have all posted stronger-than-expected earnings, bolstered by demand for AI chips, cloud services, and data infrastructure. Fiscal tailwinds like the CHIPS Act continue to support capital expenditure and innovation across the index.

Altogether, these dynamics paint a clear picture: macro conditions are aligning in favour of NAS100 outperformance.

Technical Analysis

On the monthly chart, NAS100 is in a strong long-term uptrend, trading well above the Ichimoku Cloud with RSI at 63 and MACD expanding bullishly. April’s candle formed a higher low, and May is printing continuation strength, confirming institutional conviction.

The weekly chart reinforces the bullish picture with a clean breakout above the Kumo and a rising Chikou Span. Price action has reclaimed the key 20,000 level and established a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows. RSI remains above 52 and MACD has completed a bullish crossover.

On the daily chart, the index is now attempting to break above the top of the Kumo with RSI at 62 and MACD momentum accelerating. Volume is rising in tandem with price, confirming strong participation. A daily close above 20,420 would complete a cloud breakout and signal trend continuation.

The 4-hour chart offers clear short-term confirmation. All Ichimoku components are bullish: price is well above the Kumo, the Tenkan-Sen is above the Kijun-Sen, and the Chikou Span is above both price and the cloud. RSI is nearing 66 and MACD shows a fresh momentum burst, pointing toward immediate continuation.

Key resistance lies at 21,000 and 21,200, while dynamic support levels include the 20,000 Kijun and 19,700 Senkou Span B.

Sentiment Analysis

Commitments of Traders data shows institutional traders are reaccumulating NASDAQ long positions. Asset managers have expanded net longs while leveraged funds are reducing shorts. This indicates growing confidence in continued tech leadership.

Retail sentiment remains heavily bearish, with over 60 percent of CFD and spread bet traders short the index—a reliable contrarian signal during trending markets. This positioning creates potential fuel for a short squeeze on any breakout.

Options market data also supports the bullish thesis. The put-call ratio remains below 1.0, with open interest surging in short-dated call options, particularly on tech-heavy ETFs. Traders are positioning for upside rather than hedging downside risk.

ETF flows into QQQ and AI-focused funds have picked up sharply, confirming renewed risk appetite from institutional investors. With macro fears receding and fiscal tailwinds in play, sentiment has clearly flipped to bullish across positioning, flows, and media tone.

Trade Setup – NAS100 Long

Direction: Long NAS100
Entry Zone: 20,390 – 20,420 (on confirmed breakout)
Stop Loss: 19,700 (below Kijun and cloud support)
Target 1: 21,000
Target 2: 21,200
Stretch Target: 21,500
Risk/Reward: Approximately 1:2.5 to Target 2

This trade setup is supported by full multi-timeframe bullish confirmation, macro tailwinds, strong sentiment alignment, and breakout-ready technicals. The recent consolidation above the 20,000 handle has created a stable launchpad for the next leg higher. If the Fed confirms a dovish tilt in upcoming remarks, the breakout could accelerate quickly.

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