The Quarterly Chart Position Strategy is a high-level, long-term trading approach that uses 3-month candlesticks to identify and hold macro-aligned positions across forex, commodities, and indices. This strategy is ideal for traders and investors who want to focus on big-picture directional moves that unfold over several months to a year, guided by seasonal trends, economic cycles, and policy divergence.

By analysing quarterly charts, you gain insight into institutional positioning, regime shifts, and structural breakouts that aren’t visible on lower timeframes — making it a favourite among macro traders, fund managers, and long-term investors.

Why Use the Quarterly Chart?

• Reveals macro trend transitions and breakout confirmations
• Minimises noise from daily or weekly volatility
• Aligns with central bank cycles, fiscal policy, and global capital flows
• Ideal for building long-term positions with wide stops and defined narratives

Strategy Framework

• Timeframe: 3-month (quarterly) candlestick chart
• Holding Period: 3–12 months or longer
• Trade Frequency: 1–2 quality setups per quarter
• Best Review Periods: Start of each calendar quarter (January, April, July, October)

Core Technical Tools

• 20 EMA and 50 EMA (applied to quarterly chart): Long-term trend direction
• MACD: Quarterly momentum shifts
• Price Action: Breakouts, engulfing candles, inside bars, long-wick rejections
• Volume (if available): Institutional confirmation
• Support/Resistance: Multi-year zones

Entry Criteria

1. Quarterly Breakout or Reversal Candle
   • Bullish or bearish engulfing candle
   • Break above a multi-quarter range or compression pattern
   • Strong directional close with minimal wick against the trend
2. EMA Confirmation
   • Price breaks and closes above or below the 20/50 EMA
   • Slope of EMAs confirms trend strength and momentum
3. MACD Cross or Divergence
   • Fresh crossover above/below zero line
   • MACD histogram expansion in direction of breakout
4. Macro Alignment
   • Monetary policy divergence (e.g. hawkish Fed vs dovish ECB)
   • Growth or inflation surprises
   • Fiscal policy shifts or commodity cycles
   • Confirmed macro narrative enhances conviction

Trade Execution

• Entry: After quarterly candle closes and breakout confirmed
• Stop-Loss: Below/above previous quarterly low/high
• Position Size: Conservative (0.25–0.5% risk) due to wider stops
• Scale-In Option: Add on breakouts in lower timeframes (monthly/weekly)

Profit Targets

• TP1: Next major quarterly swing level
• TP2: Fibonacci extension or measured move projection
• Time-Based Exit: After 2–3 quarterly candles (6–9 months) if price stalls
• Use quarterly trailing stop based on candle closes

Example: GBP/USD Quarterly Strategy

• GBP/USD forms a strong bullish engulfing candle above 1.2700 after 2 years of sideways action
• MACD turns positive, 20 EMA starts curving upward
• Macro: BoE turns hawkish while Fed signals pause
• Entry: 1.2750, SL: 1.2200 (previous quarter low)
• TP1: 1.3400 (multi-year resistance), TP2: 1.4000
• Trade held across 2–3 quarters (6–9 months)

Risk Management

• Risk per trade: 0.25–0.5% due to wide stops
• Diversify across 2–4 uncorrelated macro themes
• Monitor each quarter’s close for continuation or reversal
• Ignore intraday noise — focus on quarterly structure

Best Markets for Quarterly Strategy

• Forex: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY
• Commodities: Gold, Copper, Oil
• Indices: S&P 500, DAX, FTSE 100
• Crypto: BTC/USD on long-term structure

Advantages

• Strong signal quality with minimal false breakouts
• Perfect for part-time or long-horizon traders
• Aligns with macro narratives and institutional flows
• Low-maintenance — quarterly review cycles reduce stress
• High reward-to-risk on trend continuation setups

Limitations

• Low trade frequency — requires patience
• Wide stops mean smaller position sizing
• Slow feedback loop — moves take time to develop
• Need for strong macro understanding for optimal timing

Conclusion

The Quarterly Chart Position Strategy is built for traders and investors who prefer high-conviction, macro-backed, long-term positioning. It blends technical structure with policy cycles and economic forces, delivering clarity and edge in an often noisy market.

To learn how to build, manage, and scale macro positions using quarterly charts and economic themes, enrol in our strategic Trading Courses crafted for long-term traders, macro specialists, and portfolio builders.