Introduction

Swiss franc strength continues to dominate the macro landscape as Japan’s economy falters under the weight of structural stagnation and inflationary uncertainty. CHF/JPY remains in a confirmed uptrend, and with technical momentum intact, the pair offers a high-probability long opportunity.

Fundamental Analysis

Switzerland (CHF):

• GDP Growth: +0.5% QoQ, +2.0% YoY — robust and stable
• Inflation: +0.1% MoM, +0.1% YoY — firmly under control
• Interest Rate: 0.00% — steady policy, no loosening bias
• Unemployment: 2.7% — very low, full employment territory
• Trade Balance: +4.3bn — healthy surplus
• Fiscal Position: Budget +0.4%, Debt/GDP 37.9% — strongest in the G10

Japan (JPY):

• GDP Growth: 0.0% QoQ, +1.7% YoY — stagnating quarterly trend
• Inflation: +0.1% MoM, +3.3% YoY — sticky but at risk of slipping
• Interest Rate: 0.5% — still accommodative despite tweaks
• Unemployment: 2.5% — low but real wages still falling
• Trade Balance: +153m — fragile recovery
• Fiscal Position: Budget -5.5%, Debt/GDP 237% — worst among majors

Verdict: CHF is fundamentally superior on nearly all macro fronts. Japan’s fiscal and structural problems persist, making JPY unattractive. In the context of CHF/JPY, this pair reflects the fundamental disparities.

Sentiment Analysis

• Positioning: JPY net shorts elevated; CHF under-owned but rising
• Narrative: BoJ remains behind curve; SNB viewed as inflation-resilient
• Flows: JPY suffering from persistent capital outflows; CHF gaining as a neutral haven
• Geopolitical: CHF insulated; JPY exposed to EM and China volatility

Summary: Market sentiment tilts heavily in favour of CHF when considering CHF/JPY, especially amid volatility and safe-haven demand.

Technical Analysis

Daily Chart (Ichimoku + Momentum Indicators):

• Ichimoku Cloud: Price well above cloud; bullish Kumo slope intact
• Lagging Span: Above price and cloud — confirms bullish trend
• RSI: 62.14 — bullish zone but showing mild bearish divergence
• MACD: Above zero; weakening histogram suggests slowing momentum
• Volume: Strong participation; no signs of exhaustion

Conclusion: CHF/JPY remains in a bullish structure. While minor consolidation may occur, momentum, trend, and macro all favour the long side. A retracement to the Conversion Line (~184.95) would offer a better entry for trend continuation.

Conclusion

CHF/JPY continues to offer one of the cleanest macro-technical long setups in the FX space. The franc’s fundamental stability, combined with Japan’s long-standing imbalances in CHF/JPY trading, is driving capital flows into CHF. Technically, the bullish trend remains intact, and traders should look to buy dips with stops below the daily cloud and upside targets at 188.00 and beyond.