The clean hydrogen race is heating up — and two names keep coming up: Plug Power (PLUG) and FuelCell Energy (FCEL). Both companies are gunning for a slice of the green hydrogen market, but their paths couldn’t be more different. With the sector poised for explosive growth through 2030, investors want to know: which stock has more room to run?

This report breaks down the key differences in fundamentals, sentiment, and technicals — and delivers a clear conclusion on where the smart money might go next.

Fundamental Analysis: Revenue vs. Resilience

Plug Power (PLUG) is betting big on scale. It’s forecasting $709.3 million in 2025 revenue, with DOE support to build six hydrogen production plants. The business is still deeply unprofitable — $862 million in TTM losses and gross margins of −29%. But Plug holds $475 million in cash and aims to reduce costs by $200 million annually via its “Project Quantum Leap.” Its PEM electrolyzer tech and JV with Olin (Louisiana) give it real infrastructure depth.

FuelCell Energy (FCEL) expects faster top-line growth (+28.9% YoY) on a much smaller base ($144.6 million for 2025). It’s running with thinner margins (−26%) and a tighter balance sheet — just $116.1 million in cash vs. $124.1 million debt. Still, FCEL boasts a $1.26 billion backlog and recent wins like the $160M Hartford project. It’s restructuring globally to realign cost and tech priorities.

Summary: PLUG has infrastructure scale and federal tailwinds. FCEL has backlog momentum but is financially constrained and reliant on contract wins.

Sentiment Analysis: Street View & Retail Buzz

Plug Power (PLUG) is the more controversial name. Analysts have slashed price targets as low as $0.50. Short interest is near 26% of float. AI sentiment scores from Danelfin peg it as a “Sell” (3/10). Retail positioning is weak, and momentum has slowed sharply post-July.

FuelCell Energy (FCEL) has seen steadier sentiment. While analyst ratings are soft (“Reduce” consensus), price targets sit closer to current levels (~$7.53). News sentiment is slightly positive. FCEL is under the radar — which could mean less downside surprise, but also slower attention-driven rallies.

Summary: PLUG has higher volatility and visibility. FCEL flies lower but steadier. PLUG carries heavier bearish weight, but sentiment could flip faster on positive catalysts.

Technical Analysis: Trend Structure Breakdown

PLUG has broken out of its downtrend and trades above the Ichimoku cloud — a bullish configuration. RSI sits at 61.48, suggesting strong momentum. MACD is flattening but not reversing. Key supports lie at $1.64 and $1.53, with upside targets at $1.93 and $2.00.

FCEL is still trapped below the Ichimoku cloud. RSI at 46.21 indicates momentum loss. MACD shows minor bullish divergence, but no crossover. The $5.55 resistance level remains a wall. Price action remains sideways to bearish unless that level breaks.

Summary: PLUG is technically bullish but due for consolidation. FCEL is structurally bearish and needs a breakout to shift momentum.

Conclusion: Which Hydrogen Stock Has More Upside?

Plug Power offers a bigger prize — scale, federal support, a bullish chart, and a credible cost-cutting roadmap. But it’s also under pressure from sentiment and dilution fears. FuelCell Energy, while backed by a growing backlog, has poor margins, bearish chart structure, and weaker liquidity.

Our call: Plug Power has more upside potential heading into 2026. It’s higher risk — but with a higher ceiling if it delivers.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Plug Power a good hydrogen stock to buy?

Plug Power is considered one of the most scalable plays in green hydrogen. Backed by federal funding and infrastructure growth, it’s a speculative buy for investors with high risk tolerance.

Why is FuelCell Energy underperforming?

FCEL has struggled with negative margins, cost overruns, and tight liquidity. Despite a large backlog, execution risks and lack of scale have weighed on performance.

What is Project Quantum Leap at Plug Power?

It is Plug’s internal optimisation initiative targeting over $200M in annualised cost savings through pricing, production efficiency, and capex control.

How do PLUG and FCEL compare in valuation?

PLUG trades at a premium due to growth and federal support. DCF fair value suggests 20%+ upside, while FCEL appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels.

What’s the key resistance level for FCEL?

$5.55 is a critical technical resistance. A sustained close above it could shift the trend structure from bearish to neutral.